TRIPP gives fresh momentum to Trans-Caspian gas pipeline

 The construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline fits seamlessly into the U.S. foreign policy agenda, particularly the “Trump Route” (TRIPP) initiative linking Europe with Central Asia through the South Caucasus, Hudson Institute senior fellow Luke Coffey wrote in Arab News.

He said the project draws historical parallels with regional energy initiatives of the 1990s backed by President Bill Clinton, most notably the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline. Those projects not only opened Caspian energy resources to global markets but also strengthened political and economic stability by deepening ties with the West.

According to Coffey, President Donald Trump could have pursued the same strategy — reducing Europe’s reliance on Russian energy, opening new markets for U.S. companies shut out of Russia by sanctions, and strengthening ties with regional partners seeking integration with the West.

The analyst noted that the Trans-Caspian project remains controversial as it would allow international consumers to bypass Russia and Iran’s energy markets and transit routes, weakening their strategic positions. For years, Moscow and Tehran have tried to block it by citing environmental risks and the Caspian’s unresolved legal status, but observers say their real concern lies in losing market share and influence.

Still, Coffey argued, today’s geopolitical environment is favorable. Russia is focused on its war in Ukraine and less active in opposing the project, while Iran faces domestic challenges and growing international isolation.

He stressed that there has not been such a favorable moment for the Trans-Caspian pipeline since the 1990s. Its construction would be a turning point for the region — securing Europe’s energy supply, providing Turkmenistan with additional revenue, and strengthening stability across Eurasia.

Coffey added that President Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Turkmenistan after his successful trip to Washington was no coincidence, as it aimed to advance the pipeline project. For Turkmenistan, diversifying energy exports offers major benefits, while Europe represents a vital and new market.