Azerbaijan oil fund assets seen topping $78 bln by 2030

Assets of the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) could surpass $78 billion by 2030 under a baseline oil price assumption of $65 per barrel, according to government projections.

Under a bull-case scenario with crude averaging $85 per barrel, fund assets are projected to exceed $86 billion, while dropping toward $70 billion should prices fall below the baseline. Officials noted that the enforcement of the sovereign fiscal rule through 2030 will progressively curb the state budget's reliance on direct SOFAZ transfers, cushioning public finances against hydrocarbon market volatility.

Government estimates also forecast average daily oil production at the flagship Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) field complex to rise 1.5% to 316,400 barrels per day in 2027. Conversely, output at the Shah Deniz gas-condensate field is expected to slip by 0.7%.