ISW: Kremlin realizes that current Russian forces are insufficient to conquer Ukraine

Putin and his advisors have apparently realized that current Russian forces are insufficient to conquer Ukraine, said The Institute for the Study of War.

"Russian-appointed occupation officials in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts announced on September 20 that they would hold a 'referendum' on acceding to Russia, with a vote taking place from September 23-27. The Kremlin will use the falsified results of these sham referenda to illegally annex all Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine and is likely to declare unoccupied parts of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts to be part of Russia as well. The Kremlin's annexation plans are primarily targeting a domestic audience," ISW said.

According to the US-based institute, Ukrainian and Western leaders responded to reports of the impending referenda with renewed declarations of commitment to restoring Ukrainian sovereignty over occupied Ukrainian territory.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated on September 20 that "sham 'referendums' will not change anything ... Ukraine has every right to liberate its territories and will keep liberating them whatever Russia has to say." NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on September 20 that "sham referendums will only further worsen the situation, and therefore we need to provide more support to Ukraine." US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on September 20 that the United States "will never recognize this territory as anything other than a part of Ukraine" and will continue to provide "historic support" to Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized on September 19 that "Ukraine has every right to defend the sovereignty and integrity of its own territory and its own democracy." French President Emmanuel Macron called the sham referenda a "parody" and a "provocation."





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