Expert: Russia’s oil sector decline will accelerate sharply

Drone strikes by Ukraine on Russian refineries risk triggering a systemic fuel crisis in Russia, Israeli-based expert and blogger Dmitry Chernyshev said, according to Minval Politika.

He noted that by summer 2025, between 15–22% of Russia’s crude oil refining capacity had been knocked offline, forcing Moscow to curb gasoline and diesel exports and even ban gasoline exports entirely in February 2024.

If such attacks continue, he warned, Russia could face fuel shortages nationwide, rationing, public transport disruptions, trucking paralysis and goods deficits. Agriculture and rail logistics could also be hit hard.

Chernyshev stressed that the most critical refining units, such as catalytic cracking and hydrocracking, rely on Western-made equipment, which Russia cannot repair quickly due to sanctions. Some major plants also produce jet fuel for the air force, making their shutdowns strategically damaging.

“The degradation of Russia’s oil industry will accelerate. Less gasoline and more low-grade fuel oil will be produced from each ton of crude. At some point Moscow may even have to cut crude exports to cover domestic demand, hitting the budget harder. The country’s vast geography is becoming a liability rather than an advantage,” he concluded.