Polls show rise of Turkish ultranationalist parties as AKP, CHP lose ground

Support for Turkey’s ruling AK Party and the main opposition CHP is slipping, while ultranationalist parties are gaining strength ahead of future elections, two recent opinion polls showed.

According to surveys by GENAR and Areda Survey, the AK Party’s rating fell from 35.2% in July to 33.6% in August, while CHP support declined from a May peak of 35.6% to 31.8%. Analysts cite inflation, the lira’s depreciation and worsening living standards as key factors.

The DEM Party, drawing support from Kurdish nationalists, held third place with nearly 10%. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), a government ally, rose to over 8%. The İYİ Party and the far-right Victory Party also registered modest gains, with anti-refugee rhetoric boosting support for the latter.

Pollsters said frustration with the cross-party “Turkey without Terrorism” initiative, which saw PKK members voluntarily disarm in northern Iraq, has driven voters toward ultranationalist blocs. The initiative itself has gained wider public approval, with support rising from 34% in March to 56% in August.

The shifts come amid political uncertainty. If a court annuls the CHP’s 2023 congress, party leaders Özgür Özel and jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu are expected to launch a new party, EKİM, from an Ankara office previously used by Ahmet Özal’s TEK party.

Turkey’s next presidential and parliamentary elections are due in 2028.